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The National Bureau of Economic Research NBER is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community. Poterba of MIT. The NBER was founded in Its first staff economist, director of research, and one of its founders was American economist Wesley Mitchell. He was succeeded by Malcolm C. Rorty in
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The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure

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The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure

The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recession or expansion. The period from a peak to a trough is a recession and the period from a trough to a peak is an expansion. According to the chronology, the most recent peak occurred in March , ending a record-long expansion that began in The most recent trough occurred in November , inaugurating an expansion. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
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The Business-Cycle Peak of March 2001

The introductory statement is actually too harsh, but it is true that the NBER process does not have strict mathematical definitions. And the lead certainly is good attention grabbing journalism. The people involved in the process are not hacks; they are among the brightest and best trained macroeconomists we have.
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In this article I suggest a new set of rules of thumb to determine the occurrence, magnitude and intensity of global crises. Unlike the procedure developed by the NBER to define a recession, which is based on an array of indicators, including GDP, they solely rely on oil price volatility. The article closes pinpointing some reasons as to why the new approach might be useful to predict both weak and new crises not ascertained or anticipated by the BCDC method. In this article I elaborate on an earlier work to suggest a new set of rules of thumb for determining the occurrence, magnitude and intensity of a global crisis.
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